Between 2002 and 2004 the Republicans were the majority party in U.S. politics. Indeed, defying the conventional wisdom that midterm elections generally punish the President’s party, in 2002 Republican George W. Bush became the first President since FDR in 1934 to witness his party make gains in both chambers of Congress during the President’s first term. In 2004 the Grand Old Party ‘earned political capital’ by retaining the White House, this time with the popular vote on their side, and by making even further inroads into the Congress. However, in 2006 the Republican juggernaut ran out of steam. In that November’s midterm campaign, Bush’s party lost six Senate seats, thirty House seats, as well as six Governorships. This downturn propelled the Democrats into a clear majority in the legislature for the first time in over ten years. It was a significant reversal of fortunes.

Accounting for this shift in the U.S. political landscape is the purpose of Professor Larry J. Sabato’s latest work, The Sixth Year Itch: The Rise and Fall of the George W. Bush Presidency. That Sabato should craft a book on the 2006 campaign season is hardly surprising. Not only is he the director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, but this text also serves as a logical progression of a series of publications that he has previously edited. This is, of course, in reference to Midterm Madness: The Elections of 2002, and Divided States of America: The Slash and Burn Politics of the 2004 Presidential Election].

In order to complete this task, Professor Sabato has assembled some of the biggest names in U.S. political punditry. Collectively, they have produced over twenty-five articles concerning various aspects of 2006. The contributors include Charlie Cook of NBC News, Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report, and National Journal’s Chuck Todd. There is even a chapter submitted by the former chair of the Federal Elections Commission, Michael Toner. The articles utilise a wide variety of sources: interviews, newspapers, exit polls, federal demographic data, websites, and such like. The result is a book that is authoritatively written. The arguments contained within its pages are plausible, well articulated, and well substantiated.  

Broadly speaking, The Sixth Year Itch is structured into four parts. Part One seeks to put 2006 into the ‘big picture’, and place it in its correct historical perspective. This is achieved by writing general overviews of the House, Senate and Gubernatorial races. The reader learns that 2006 restored midterm elections to their correct pattern – after the anomalous results of 1998 and 2002 - and that the notorious ‘sixth year itch’ struck like clockwork. Part One also introduces the reader to Charlie Cook’s article on ‘wave’ elections, and how in this election cycle the Republican ‘levees’ ultimately proved ineffective. Part Two is concerned with finance and the media. It notes that U.S. elections are becoming increasingly expensive, and that possessing the latest information technology is essential in waging an effective modern campaign. As a result, this book goes beyond the 2006 election cycle, and broadens its scope to incorporate analyses of wider changes within the U.S. political system. Parts three and four round off by producing case studies of individual Senate and Gubernatorial races. As you might imagine, these parts feature the McCaskill-Talent race in Missouri, the Lieberman-Lamont contest in Connecticut, and the senate showdown in Montana, to name but three examples. These sections are largely narrative in structure, but they do contain useful analyses too. They are therefore ideal for readers who wish to know more about how the individual ground wars were won or lost.

Overall, one can judge The Sixth Year Itch favourably. In addition to its analytical strengths, part of its appeal is that it is able to reach out to a broad audience. The academic reader will derive pleasure from reviewing its insightful conclusions, but the general reader will also find the informal writing style and numerous tables most accessible too. Another area where The Sixth Year Itch is to be commended is its coverage of the governorship races. Typically, the focus of the immediate post-election analysis is on the balance of power within the Congress, rather than in the states. That this is so is most unwise. Governors Carter, Reagan, Clinton and George W. Bush all went on to become President. Thankfully, Chuck Todd redresses this imbalance with his article.

That said, however, I would like to offer one or two constructive criticisms. Firstly, although the book does contain numerous footnotes, these references are not distributed throughout the whole book. This can limit the scope for further research. Perhaps a more uniform standard should be applied in future studies? Secondly, The Sixth Year Itch does not contain a definitive bibliography at the end, nor does it contain an index. This lack of an index, in particular, makes detailed navigation of the book somewhat difficult – especially when one is using it for reference purposes. Moreover, although the publication did provide numerous case studies into various Senate and Gubernatorial races, I felt a little disappointed that some House races were not reviewed in a similar manner. I appreciate that there are too many House races for all of them to be included in a single volume – but one or two could have been highlighted in their own right. A prime candidate would have been Illinois 6, which saw Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth stand as a Democrat in this normally G.O.P.-leaning district.

I also believe that there could have been a chapter that focused on Kansas, Oklahoma and Wyoming. These are states that gave Bush over 60% of their vote in 2004, yet they all re-elected Democratic governors with comfortable majorities two years later. The fact that these governors were returned to office in states that are normally hostile to their party says something about the power of incumbency, and why governorship races are different. Perhaps this also indicates that 2006 was not as nationalised an election as we might initially suppose? Perhaps local factors still counted for something? This avenue was worth pursuing further. 

Despite these minor issues, The Sixth Year Itch succeeds in what it sets out to accomplish: to provide a detailed and entertaining synthesis as to why the 2006 midterm elections took the form that they did. I would whole-heartedly recommend this text to anyone.